By Florian Sommer
While hybrids are already on the move, electric cars are firmly on the rise. The debate has now moved on from whether electric cars will be a feasible solution to when they are going to enter the mass market.
This year’s government stimulus programmes have accelerated this process. Obama announced in August a grant of US$ 2.4 billion for the development of electric vehicles (EV) and the batteries to be used in EVs. The EU and several national European governments have also made significant funds available to make the shift. China has set a goal of producing half a million electric cars annually by 2011 and has committed US$ 1.4 billion for R&D.
A major part of the funding is earmarked for making advances in battery technology. This is a serious bottleneck for electric cars. Batteries need to become more powerful, longer lasting, and most of all, much cheaper. Current progress looks promising. The cost of batteries has been declining by 6 to 8 percent annually and most analysts predict they will continue to do so over the next 10 years with rising production volumes. The market potential is huge. McKinsey estimates that the market for batteries will be US$ 60 billion assuming six to eight million electric vehicles sold per year.
Markets have realised that batteries are a very promising technology. Our battery / energy storage index has risen by 97.5% since the beginning of this year. This is the strongest performance amongst our 30 different indices, each addressing a different sustainable technology area.
Another area where we need to see a radical change is in the development of a reliable energy infrastructure for charging up cars. China, pushed by its urban air pollution problems, has announced some ambitious plans. It seeks to build a network of charging facilities in at least three of the country’s largest cities by 2011. Hawaii has also announced plans to build up to 100,000 charging stations for electric vehicles by 2012.
Finally, the electric car lobby needs to stay firmly focussed on winning the carbon argument. It is not a given that electric cars are necessarily more carbon efficient. Studies have shown that an electric car using pure coal-based energy would be less carbon efficient than a car with a petrol or diesel motor. However, the electric car is superior when using the current energy mix of the EU.
Ultimately, only a strong green argument for electric cars will convince governments to create the required incentives that will enable mass market roll-out of electric cars.
