Copenhagen – renewables likely to win

 By Martina Jung

The United Nations Climate Change Conference 2009 to be held in Copenhagen may fall short of agreeing a global climate treaty, but the renewables sector is likely to emerge as a winner.

The ultimate goal of the conference is a global climate treaty with the agreement of major economies to binding emission reduction targets and the implementation of cap-and-trade mechanisms. While the European Union already has its European Union Emissions Trading Scheme in place, the toughest challenge facing the UN in Copenhagen is to agree on the contribution of the world’s largest emitters, the US and China.

For its part, the US government is currently discussing a draft climate bill that could be a powerful tool to persuade the world’s other heaviest polluters – particularly China – to pass binding emission reduction legislation. However, as the US industry struggles with the effects of the financial and economic crisis, resistance to the planned cap-and-trade bill is growing.

China, meanwhile, is taking tentative first steps towards reducing its emissions. The country’s president, Hu Jintao, recently expressed his intention to slow increases in China’s carbon pollution relative to its economic growth. Nevertheless, Mr Hu refuses to commit to specific numerical targets, and he insists that richer countries should pay for poorer nations to reduce carbon emissions.

Despite these efforts, it is unlikely that the US will arrive in Copenhagen with a finalised cap-and-trade bill. Nor will China be willing to quantify any emission reduction commitment by December. However, participants in the Copenhagen conference will likely achieve a clear strategy to expand renewable energy production.

Already, the US has decided on measures to support the use of renewable energies as part of its economic stimulus package. There are still problems with the implementation. Efforts to address these problems should provide scope for more ambitious targets for the installation of renewable energy capacity in the US.

China has also taken steps to support renewable energies. It has set itself the goal of deriving 15% of its energy needs from renewable sources by 2020. The Chinese government is currently putting together a renewable energies subsidy scheme. As part of its contribution to discussions in Copenhagen, it is possible that the Chinese government will provide clarity on the details.

Renewables are key to reducing carbon emissions, and they offer countries such as China a palatable way to begin tackling emissions. While both an expansion of renewable energy production and a cap-and-trade system will represent a cost burden for national economies, the development of local renewable energy industries also has the potential to create new jobs. Therefore, expect ambitious renewable energy generation commitments among UN member states accompanied by the implementation of crucial measures to achieve these objectives to emerge from Copenhagen.

Comments

[Erald Maknori]

Good analysis.